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"0x01bf26817ccd6604b807ac32db0945fbc760aa3c478dd11240f95bce3074a8f2": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_1D_UPPER", "0x503c46472dcd2d8761964988fd9abd87a8c73e552a6079746c71d49580019a25": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_1H_LOWER", "0xf08844d909b12aface04a413962f721d45e8674d80702cf1c39852332ff4ddf8": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_1H_UPPER", "0xc0bf821a330ed83637570fc90bebde1308ec2ee4bc6813190db0efd358c98564": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_1W_LOWER", "0xed2a1c7d7a75a97855dd1c4ba86c96af2e11ee2ac07ee84b4d22a7490ead1cc8": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_1W_UPPER", "0xa1aa736212821bfa7f98d5ac2246afbbf68f75d9439f54015a9b82b5049ae8e9": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_5M_LOWER", "0x66e8c53a57f2fc2da23b916db54ef7dd1c230b85d88bc952a7f618a16ade007d": "uniswap_BOLLINGER_5M_UPPER", "0x21cf03aee7739937f0b67b006a3c149e1ab647634710443b3f4385885ce645ea": "uniswap_EMA_1D_20", "0xb556d6efc5e9b028987db2a475d73ed426b773a5e3f7760338ce4ba31e568e44": "uniswap_EMA_1D_50", "0xaa3a1beb66b8d50f74d20f01c8ca10d6de220eb09fde82ece1ed1578db494425": "uniswap_EMA_1H_20", "0xba16f82b33d67c957a0dcfc002ba2ffec45d525222e3e07b3b2d81475f84a31d": "uniswap_EMA_1H_50", "0x75c469ae80446f8d0731056b97ab88ea8170846a1903ffc3a4cc36c0745f870a": "uniswap_EMA_1W_20", "0xb8e9dfc79e855300443d8970ff2c3fd6a4cff698c3859842fd442b2fc8ce9bd8": "uniswap_EMA_1W_50", "0xdc57482cd26b50f28ed40e11805bc70253a65d4c241a7e30eaa9986bc7d0ae45": "uniswap_EMA_5M_20", "0x537792a216e906b1c4a2f459ed5ac6007229d355ee3a07cea7773d3155327292": "uniswap_EMA_5M_50", "0x4fea12b7f36e9506d6d9e1b39330bf49e3d834ffa712101cc7a1d7c047acdbfe": "uniswap_RSI_1D_14", "0xc87b430a6207806bdb54ba38a826cf41093df8aa0c5e0aa2ec9ed1b21cbe114c": "uniswap_RSI_1H_14", "0x82acd4e5048f574a2f13d08c8a3050e2174c10ec7d1c3ea29c909b655c5dcdc2": "uniswap_RSI_1W_14", "0xc3df30aff9414e9854336146c3371e543c5f62715b1787bab6716c18b58097b7": "uniswap_RSI_5M_14", "0x44baba52b4ef0a668a0f7b273292e3b7e7a4eea97f83e89194b800aa5ba80fc1": "uniswap_USD_PRICE", "0x62c4aaed52f4e4f7753b35ec9545a21d00ebba231d22fa5439954ee43540d686": "uniswap_VOLATILITY_24H", "0x3820ac6bd0052434fda5e5235f2f3b30fd2fd7adb68e283ecaf8557c983109ad": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1D_LOWER", "0x28cc36f634dc9602e2535d1502e02e26bc60e6bee437498a240411f2f95f1fd2": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1D_UPPER", "0xaeeb73f9d3fd450a2345dc17bd1afba2880512662640247aa21e428940da79c1": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1H_LOWER", "0xc25458cd4bbc69d1f319f60844ce0851a0a7144bfc5ce1c1c46120cc59e25693": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1H_UPPER", "0xb12465094189f4548c3c8696cd297244c960bbded84bbebdd6e8468d08e21142": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1W_LOWER", "0x673fb7b61537b9bdd57e7644a9e31383320bffa6ee5f78e247382f69f20c2bdc": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_1W_UPPER", "0x0a006df6563ef770c70be871b3bb0428bd0ea505257d6c09a99cdaff041220e4": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_5M_LOWER", "0xa31203ac4015c61be37a90b0d80754e744ea1ca35e34c08dd5268c94bd557cee": "wormhole_BOLLINGER_5M_UPPER", "0x7d75a8b5723e7333073b0a57c71e65bde85241363fcd976e81547a53362ee7c5": "wormhole_EMA_1D_20", "0x1fd7c83cb038988192322995b9489809b12805f7804f57e50263d3cb92224641": "wormhole_EMA_1D_50", "0x6470aaef00332fed2a2aab0849ef4cf2fb2310606d72dfdf242eca0a81e43856": "wormhole_EMA_1H_20", "0xec62d393c64550ea573134dec023b26c1ca1dca0bf8ecd9457822a7ab6d42fd9": "wormhole_EMA_1H_50", "0xfc2c2b91b6b0a1f274371cfb2545068213f870eeead89ff202e0c605c05b2b32": "wormhole_EMA_1W_20", "0x3c9f006d5d29deb73c5ff7c7febee8bdfd12b6b2554c7d607b6cfe80fe11cbc7": "wormhole_EMA_1W_50", "0xfa4c90651c12c0150ec2353f88acfb3e515081713f32736454989b20bbc6478f": "wormhole_EMA_5M_20", "0x6e08ad864d67c84343e217916b3dcc1d437473ba996f96e5cc1a6a76a7712dbc": "wormhole_EMA_5M_50", "0x700c61e6b65abf29a728abdaa7ab99d36bab22c461d2c798540d2bb18e83c6d8": "wormhole_RSI_1D_14", "0xbe212da48703fbf1cf7627066da4c3553fc9842aedff5794c099caa7ad42358c": "wormhole_RSI_1H_14", "0x9d3c491e6e77dcce36c0e3c17d99ea32bba0f636bc39a353eb32ff54bc0c997f": "wormhole_RSI_1W_14", "0x02e38e6adce68af84fa126c43423b40e11ec9deed803d845fd6415f660e7b142": "wormhole_RSI_5M_14", "0x644e61e9afde3691668508f47409e84eebf1d9632d19f0d4259bd6adc0436bc5": "wormhole_USD_PRICE", "0x03564879a93f84a0a03fea21de188cfe4d3c02634063e0748ded85ae9c65ee07": "wormhole_VOLATILITY_24H", "0x5a9c299af151290fbc3cea460ce8d7cd8651179178e8d7f5cd4a2b1a1a2665d1": "zro_BOLLINGER_1D_LOWER", "0x04f32e69004e499e5a1a139313ed0dd6533176632af31066d91dddb0af3bdc29": "zro_BOLLINGER_1D_UPPER", "0xbc811a312f1a1a3151a468ffcccef593a4375fb46fbccd6acda0f5e70ade03d5": "zro_BOLLINGER_1H_LOWER", "0x72247223af1df93bc6ab918b8d72571dd3b1fbec5f15a3aeeb7ba50ed55597f2": "zro_BOLLINGER_1H_UPPER", "0x4344464639540842c53980c72350e3e63e0a8dda8e98689ad0b85c1052690178": "zro_BOLLINGER_1W_LOWER", "0x396404701f41592021995c045d150dd62f3f58849a82d60279c656738d89a6b0": "zro_BOLLINGER_1W_UPPER", "0x444bbf8a4da523aad796745121ed7cfb0f00b4d82bda3af65901b354616a1e62": "zro_BOLLINGER_5M_LOWER", "0xd5633e465ff575d4d23685262623610ffecb4f74d69a410b90486fd7276b4865": "zro_BOLLINGER_5M_UPPER", "0xc26b9e9e0c7c188b2505590d129593225d5746327d2b765d1d02ae43e4e6a727": "zro_EMA_1D_20", "0x370c1131062e4107caecf21c2f928ce832cd13b5c1836c2a602d5ba170f1c4f4": "zro_EMA_1D_50", "0x952ff7f773dd7b9e37f609149a6ea79aed86eb7dce275685736a08b9a1e712af": "zro_EMA_1H_20", "0xb9b9c749987e845d052b4cf6c3aa707f2475d7da050f53a850e0d0b7217345cd": "zro_EMA_1H_50", "0x64aa00e77ae801b8e6bfd0c7d071b6721d3d0d288d54618925ac924f8820e0d3": "zro_EMA_1W_20", "0x2cc01bf10c4575560d5612e843c2b2b6d9902c3b373601a7e9bea6e0cd86cccb": "zro_EMA_1W_50", "0x6a7dabebefb51b394c08399eade1e1d0da796f8de3eb8b193daa9f0732159be7": "zro_EMA_5M_20", "0xe88c1665c4aa7df7394276db3da4092204a352acac7e5786598ef800f9192745": "zro_EMA_5M_50", "0x76648126cbc552d87591f3de3318983d03e006ea9998b47e7e6814c9de2164c4": "zro_RSI_1D_14", "0x5758eb84b4c493ef084f5bf31ef12a7649568195f08c89f4d2f1a16c4710b19d": "zro_RSI_1H_14", "0x1c882104e9335d21842c9c3e796be18e5384a11f29d15cb7e35eb0f099a2e3b5": "zro_RSI_1W_14", "0x7fccaff7f8305d55a79c997269454595c60291ff431999a234e998542bce125c": "zro_RSI_5M_14", "0x6fad1e0e2baba6bc1d61b2db6ce8f65002673ce4b86f4f20565fb19d5f2b93e1": "zro_USD_PRICE", "0x7c8f97efc7c47e218d9f0675d63a23953abb359912759cc52e24260cc07d5ea8": "zro_VOLATILITY_24H" } }, "visions": { "schema_version": "v3-2026-05-14", "description": "AI-calibrated market intelligence delivered on-chain. Walk-forward validated patterns (2017-2026) with honest accuracy + fire-frequency disclosure per Vision.", "registries": [ { "chain": "mainnet", "address": "0x39407eEc3Ba80746BC6156eD924D16C2689533Ed", "deploy_block": 85571217 }, { "chain": "arb-sepolia", "address": "0x5e32C6B193b1D2a41E3a249aee0200220aff3dB4", "deploy_block": 269553474 }, { "chain": "arbitrum", "address": "0x7585062b5410AE7fADd841e2100F037a4F372B3C", "deploy_block": 465503695 } ], "subscription_fee": "FREE", "eval_frequency": "Every 6 hours", "tokens": [ "AVAX", "BNB", "BTC", "ETH", "LINK", "POL", "SOL" ], "patterns": [ { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x10", "token": "BTC", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 58, "max": 66, "point": 62 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 100, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 9, "total": 10, "ratio": 0.9 }, "accuracy": "58-66%", "avg_return": "+0.5% to +2%", "frequency": "~100/yr", "fold_validation": "9/10", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 0.5, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": -0.2, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1012, "up_rate_pct": 57.5, "base_up_rate_pct": 52.1, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 5.4, "median_return_pct": 0.68, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 3.74, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -3.88, "worst_drawdown_pct": -27.14, "best_return_pct": 32.74 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x11", "token": "BTC", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 60, "max": 90, "point": 75 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 7, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 4, "total": 4, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "60-90%", "avg_return": "+3% to +8%", "frequency": "~7/yr", "fold_validation": "4/4", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 5.9, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 5.2, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 73, "up_rate_pct": 78.1, "base_up_rate_pct": 52.1, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 26.0, "median_return_pct": 5.16, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 9.32, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -6.17, "worst_drawdown_pct": -21.24, "best_return_pct": 32.74 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x20", "token": "ETH", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 50, "max": 80, "point": 65 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 13, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 5, "total": 5, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "50-80%", "avg_return": "+2% to +8%", "frequency": "~13/yr", "fold_validation": "5/5", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 5.0, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 4.3, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 126, "up_rate_pct": 75.4, "base_up_rate_pct": 51.3, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 24.1, "median_return_pct": 3.99, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 9.11, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -7.46, "worst_drawdown_pct": -28.85, "best_return_pct": 38.2 } }, { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x21", "token": "ETH", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 55, "max": 65, "point": 60 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 147, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 9, "total": 10, "ratio": 0.9 }, "accuracy": "55-65%", "avg_return": "+0.5% to +1.5%", "frequency": "~147/yr", "fold_validation": "9/10", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 0.7, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 0.0, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1455, "up_rate_pct": 56.6, "base_up_rate_pct": 51.3, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 5.3, "median_return_pct": 0.74, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 4.49, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -4.35, "worst_drawdown_pct": -47.78, "best_return_pct": 38.2 } }, { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x30", "token": "SOL", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2020-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 53, "max": 63, "point": 58 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 219, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 6, "total": 7, "ratio": 0.857 }, "accuracy": "53-63%", "avg_return": "+0.3% to +1.5%", "frequency": "~219/yr", "fold_validation": "6/7", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 0.8, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 0.1, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1584, "up_rate_pct": 53.5, "base_up_rate_pct": 49.2, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 4.3, "median_return_pct": 0.38, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 5.64, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -4.83, "worst_drawdown_pct": -43.16, "best_return_pct": 44.42 } }, { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x40", "token": "LINK", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2019-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 54, "max": 64, "point": 59 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 226, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 7, "total": 8, "ratio": 0.875 }, "accuracy": "54-64%", "avg_return": "+0.5% to +1.5%", "frequency": "~226/yr", "fold_validation": "7/8", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 0.7, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 0.0, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1811, "up_rate_pct": 54.8, "base_up_rate_pct": 50.0, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 4.8, "median_return_pct": 0.54, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 4.82, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -4.39, "worst_drawdown_pct": -41.47, "best_return_pct": 52.01 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x41", "token": "LINK", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2019-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 55, "max": 80, "point": 67 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 20, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 6, "total": 6, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "55-80%", "avg_return": "+3% to +10%", "frequency": "~20/yr", "fold_validation": "6/6", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 3.5, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 2.8, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 150, "up_rate_pct": 64.7, "base_up_rate_pct": 50.0, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 14.7, "median_return_pct": 4.39, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 9.55, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -7.71, "worst_drawdown_pct": -32.97, "best_return_pct": 46.53 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x50", "token": "AVAX", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2020-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 55, "max": 80, "point": 67 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 21, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 5, "total": 5, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "55-80%", "avg_return": "+3% to +10%", "frequency": "~21/yr", "fold_validation": "5/5", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 3.2, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 2.5, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 152, "up_rate_pct": 60.5, "base_up_rate_pct": 48.5, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 12.0, "median_return_pct": 3.44, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 10.58, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -8.2, "worst_drawdown_pct": -32.57, "best_return_pct": 46.25 } }, { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x60", "token": "BNB", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 58, "max": 68, "point": 63 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 136, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 9, "total": 10, "ratio": 0.9 }, "accuracy": "58-68%", "avg_return": "+0.5% to +2.5%", "frequency": "~136/yr", "fold_validation": "9/10", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 1.0, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 0.3, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1381, "up_rate_pct": 60.0, "base_up_rate_pct": 51.6, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 8.4, "median_return_pct": 1.1, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 4.77, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -4.78, "worst_drawdown_pct": -41.56, "best_return_pct": 39.68 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x61", "token": "BNB", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2017-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 55, "max": 80, "point": 67 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 15, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 5, "total": 5, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "55-80%", "avg_return": "+3% to +10%", "frequency": "~15/yr", "fold_validation": "5/5", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 3.7, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 3.0, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 151, "up_rate_pct": 62.9, "base_up_rate_pct": 51.6, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 11.3, "median_return_pct": 4.1, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 11.19, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -9.05, "worst_drawdown_pct": -29.33, "best_return_pct": 39.68 } }, { "name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "code": "0x70", "token": "POL", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2019-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 53, "max": 63, "point": 58 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 256, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 5, "total": 6, "ratio": 0.833 }, "accuracy": "53-63%", "avg_return": "+0.5% to +2%", "frequency": "~256/yr", "fold_validation": "5/6", "use_case": "directional_for_holders", "use_case_text": "Directional intelligence for existing holders \u2014 statistically advantageous moment to add. Gross fire-mean is positive but does not consistently exceed typical flat-trade frictions (~70bps DEX round-trip) in 4-year vault sim. Not intended as standalone entry/exit signal for unhedged trade-from-flat positions; use as add-to-position timing while you already hold the asset.", "expected_value_pct": 0.9, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 0.2, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 1871, "up_rate_pct": 54.5, "base_up_rate_pct": 48.4, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 6.1, "median_return_pct": 0.6, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 5.85, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -4.96, "worst_drawdown_pct": -54.93, "best_return_pct": 82.97 } }, { "name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "code": "0x71", "token": "POL", "direction": "BULLISH", "data_span_years": "2019-2026", "accuracy_range_pct": { "min": 55, "max": 80, "point": 67 }, "fires_per_year_estimate": 39, "fold_validation_ratio": { "passed": 4, "total": 4, "ratio": 1.0 }, "accuracy": "55-80%", "avg_return": "+3% to +10%", "frequency": "~39/yr", "fold_validation": "4/4", "use_case": "flat_position_trade", "use_case_text": "High-asymmetry volatility-tail signal. Gross fire-mean meaningfully exceeds typical DEX round-trip frictions; 4-year vault sim shows positive risk-adjusted return for time-exited flat trades. Pattern is rare (single-digit to low-double-digit fires per year per token) but high conviction. Suitable as trade-from-flat with appropriate position sizing and time-based exit.", "expected_value_pct": 4.0, "net_expectancy_70bps_pct": 3.3, "failure_profile": { "total_fires_backtest": 225, "up_rate_pct": 57.3, "base_up_rate_pct": 48.4, "edge_vs_baseline_pp": 8.9, "median_return_pct": 2.83, "avg_return_when_correct_pct": 13.4, "avg_return_when_wrong_pct": -8.62, "worst_drawdown_pct": -48.36, "best_return_pct": 82.97 } } ], "recent": [ { "id": 144, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 54, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.1070927817221202, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:12Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 24.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 24.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 56, "confidence_delta": -2, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:06Z", "confidence": 62 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 143, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 62, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 13.776626348228108, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:06Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 54.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 54.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 55, "confidence_delta": 7, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "POL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:07Z", "confidence": 56 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 142, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 56, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.10775365420382292, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:07Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 30.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 30.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 57, "confidence_delta": -1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 141, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 57, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.11275392037533147, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-30T18:00:13Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 60.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 60.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 57, "confidence_delta": 0, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-30T18:00:08Z", "confidence": 55 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 140, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 55, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 14.372211041065128, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-30T18:00:08Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 24.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 24.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 59, "confidence_delta": -4, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 139, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 59, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 14.525696806181658, "haiku_available": false, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-29T18:00:04Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 30.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 30.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 58, "confidence_delta": 1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 138, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 58, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 14.051966700587771, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T12:00:08Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 114.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 114.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 54, "confidence_delta": 4, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "POL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T06:00:03Z", "confidence": 57 }, { "token": "SOL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T12:00:04Z", "confidence": 59 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 137, "token": "SOL", "pattern_type": 48, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 59, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 118.49722188024829, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T12:00:04Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 114.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 114.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 58, "confidence_delta": 1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "POL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T06:00:03Z", "confidence": 57 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 136, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 57, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.11430929103483273, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-28T06:00:03Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 107.99, "cooldown_hours_token": 107.99, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 54, "confidence_delta": 3, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 135, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 54, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.1020517664313457, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:23Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 186.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 186.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 57, "confidence_delta": -3, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "BTC", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "confidence": 59 }, { "token": "ETH", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:08Z", "confidence": 60 }, { "token": "SOL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:13Z", "confidence": 58 }, { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:16Z", "confidence": 54 }, { "token": "BNB", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:19Z", "confidence": 64 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 134, "token": "BNB", "pattern_type": 96, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 64, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 767.4897793184775, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:19Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 330.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 330.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 59, "confidence_delta": 5, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "BTC", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "confidence": 59 }, { "token": "ETH", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:08Z", "confidence": 60 }, { "token": "SOL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:13Z", "confidence": 58 }, { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:16Z", "confidence": 54 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 133, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 54, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 12.277536781514303, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:16Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 90.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 90.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 59, "confidence_delta": -5, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "BTC", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "confidence": 59 }, { "token": "ETH", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:08Z", "confidence": 60 }, { "token": "SOL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:13Z", "confidence": 58 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 132, "token": "SOL", "pattern_type": 48, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 58, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 114.62983980904657, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:13Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 84.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 84.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 56, "confidence_delta": 2, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "BTC", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "confidence": 59 }, { "token": "ETH", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:08Z", "confidence": 60 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 131, "token": "ETH", "pattern_type": 33, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 60, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 2667.8987793401184, "haiku_available": false, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:08Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 192.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 192.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 60, "confidence_delta": 0, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "BTC", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "confidence": 59 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 130, "token": "BTC", "pattern_type": 16, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 59, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 84332.32360605907, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-23T18:00:03Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 618.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 618.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 58, "confidence_delta": 1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 129, "token": "SOL", "pattern_type": 48, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 56, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 108.73885558505083, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-20T06:00:04Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 108.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 108.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 55, "confidence_delta": 1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "fired_at": "2026-09-19T12:00:04Z", "confidence": 67 }, { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:05Z", "confidence": 59 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 128, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 59, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 12.387333217041034, "haiku_available": false, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:05Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 96.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 12.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 58, "confidence_delta": 1, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "fired_at": "2026-09-19T12:00:04Z", "confidence": 67 } ], "invalidated": true, "invalidation_reason": "Fired from corrupted LINK input: RSI_1H_14 was pinned at 14.4477 by the 2026-09-18/19 price corruption and reads 38.42 when recomputed on clean data - above the 35 oversold_exit threshold, so the trigger condition was never actually met. Excluded from accuracy; see docs/design/21_CRE_CONDITION_RESOLUTION.md section 7 Corrections." }, { "id": 127, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 65, "pattern_name": "CAPITULATION_EVENT", "confidence": 67, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 12.523756239763166, "haiku_available": false, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-19T12:00:04Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": null, "cooldown_hours_token": 84.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": null, "confidence_delta": null, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [], "invalidated": true, "invalidation_reason": "Fired from corrupted LINK input: 288 price ticks at ~$46,543,330 instead of ~$11.40 (2026-09-18 04:55 - 2026-09-19 04:50 UTC) left RSI_1H_14 pinned at 14.4477. Recomputed on clean data it reads 38.42 - above the 35 oversold_exit threshold - so the trigger condition was never actually met. Excluded from accuracy; see docs/design/21_CRE_CONDITION_RESOLUTION.md section 7 Corrections." }, { "id": 126, "token": "POL", "pattern_type": 112, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 57, "direction": "BULLISH", "price_usd": 0.0931749717388885, "haiku_available": true, "chain": "polygon", "fired_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:10Z", "cooldown_hours_same_pattern": 126.0, "cooldown_hours_token": 126.0, "last_same_pattern_confidence": 55, "confidence_delta": 2, "concurrent_patterns_24h": [ { "token": "ETH", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-15T18:00:04Z", "confidence": 60 }, { "token": "SOL", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-15T18:00:10Z", "confidence": 55 }, { "token": "LINK", "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "fired_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:03Z", "confidence": 58 } ], "invalidated": false, "invalidation_reason": null }, { "id": 125, "token": "LINK", "pattern_type": 64, "pattern_name": "OVERSOLD_REVERSION", "confidence": 58, 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